VFACTS July 2013

[MethodX]

2 yank multinationals who make cars similar to each other and people still cant get out of 1977.
They make the same type of cars.

Hate the real enemy, the Japanese and Euro hot hatches.

[csv8]

Only Ranger in top 10 ?? What about Fiesta, Focus, Kuga ?????
What are there sales figures????

[2011G6E]

Originally Posted by MethodX

2 yank multinationals who make cars similar to each other and people still cant get out of 1977.
They make the same type of cars.

Exactly...if anyone actually went and drove both a Falcon and Commodore back to back, and was honest in their assessment and became "badge blind" for a moment, you'd know there's a coin toss between them as to which is better. They both have their little niggles, they both have their amazing points, but they're both stunningly good cars for such a small...miniscule actually compared to the big picture...market as ours.

Not sure you can call Euros and hot hatches "the enemy". They're a completely different animal to Falcon/Commodore. People were exposed to good smaller cars...most of which aren't actually that "small" anymore...and realised that they didn't have to be shackled to two makes of sedan as a "normal" choice for a family car. That's a good thing because it drives innovation on the part of the big two. If we artificially restricted the choice of cars to force people to buy Falcons (or Commodores) why would the makers try harder to make them better and better? They'd have a captive audience, so why try harder?
It would be the same as the "good old days", with the same stodge dished out every year with only a couple of tweaks, to a public with limited choice and who had been brainwashed that our cars...at the time...were supposedly "the best in the world". Who could argue? Strong protectionism and tarriffs kept people out of interesting and modern vehicles pretty much, and in the old days, a small car was a small car, and had pretty dismal equipment levels. But then, the Falcon/Kingswood/Commodore didn't have that good a level of kit unless you went mad with the option boxes.

And yes, it is valid to talk about the old days. If you forget what happened back then, you are doomed to relive it.

[FalconXV]

Originally Posted by Spammy

And their current strategy has been a PR dream?

Exactly, so why would they want to turn an undesirable situation into a catastrophic one?
I have come around with the closure thing, but if they close early and welch on the agreement, I will turn my back on Ford once and for all.
Does less cars coming through the assembly line equate to better quality control?

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

C'mon, what's with the negativity mate?? 2800 is a market as fragmented as today is pretty good. Forget about the days where one model consistently sold 5000+ per month. It's not going to happen again. Instead of bagging the numbers try looking at the bigger picture because The future of manufacturing cars in this country partly depends on VF's success.
Personally I left the Holden is crap no matter what attitude back in high school...

The issue isnt that the VF only sold 2800 for the month (and afterall it was fourth in the table, and everyone under 4th, would love to be fourth), its that 2800 a month (in the first full month of sales) is looking like it doesnt translate into a great long term (and I mean 1 or 2 years from now), future for the car. They may send 500 to the US each month, they may send 150 to NZ each month and they may send a few hundred to the middle east each month), but considering they are all loss makers, the prospects look slim in that they are never going to achieve high volume production levels to be able achieve a profit on making the car.

[GQ_Smooth]

I cannot see any situation that closes Ford production earlier than planned. Making the announcement so public about the closing date, they would have submitted the figures to head office about expected sales volumes, Ford haven't been known to be optimistic with their internal projections on sales volumes when it comes to closing factories down. They would have predicted this and I trust planned for (I hope my trust is well founded). They should get a slight boost in sales when the new model is released, but like what is happening to Holden, the main boost will come from V8 and Turbo models, with enthusiasts getting in to get the last of the line (including myself), the remainder I suspect will be using the made to order principle (they will build what the customer wants) 2-3 week wait.

[4stanger]

With the holden commodores sales figure for the month of July,
Would this number include runout VE's and how many would be registered "dealer demos"?

[turbodewd]

Originally Posted by GTP owner

The way I see it is that Ford and Holden failed the buying public by building cars they no longer want. People do not want a bigger car with every new cycle. They dont want more power at the expense of fuel economy. They dont want more of the same.

End of rant

Incorrect. The AU auto market is subject to huge segmentation and competition. We have heaps of manufacturers offering vehicles AND they offer heaps of models.

The Aussie dollar also makes autos cheap to import.

Lastly, the GFC has seen a glut in autos being produce in countries with much lower wages than ours.

And one more thing. A large car will always be priced higher than a small car, and more ppl (inc. govt depts) will be able to afford or buy a cheaper car. If large cars were cheaper than small cars ppl would be buying them instead.

[PepeLePew]

Are the REAL numbers out yet in lieu of the secret squirrel offering from our friend Dowling?

[KIWI-1]

Originally Posted by Arnaldo

With the holden commodores sales figure for the month of July,
Would this number include runout VE's and how many would be registered "dealer demos"?

For sure.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by GQ_Smooth

I cannot see any situation that closes Ford production earlier than planned. Making the announcement so public about the closing date, they would have submitted the figures to head office about expected sales volumes, Ford haven't been known to be optimistic with their internal projections on sales volumes when it comes to closing factories down. They would have predicted this and I trust planned for (I hope my trust is well founded). They should get a slight boost in sales when the new model is released, but like what is happening to Holden, the main boost will come from V8 and Turbo models, with enthusiasts getting in to get the last of the line (including myself), the remainder I suspect will be using the made to order principle (they will build what the customer wants) 2-3 week wait.

If they can shut it sooner they will. Will save extra losses plus more employee entitlements at the end if they do.

Poor old Falcon is having a tough time, specially where dealers are concerned. Bit hard to sell them when you have them parked in the holding paddock rusting away!

[GQ_Smooth]

If there is no demand for Falcon, workers will be stood down until the order bank fills up then bring them back to fill the demand. I don't see Ford paying production workers to do nothing, if demand isn't there it turns into down days (not sure if this will be with or without pay). If the workers aren't happy they do have the option to leave but potentially lose there entitlements if the voluntary redundancy isn't an option. They should be able to push through until 2016.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

If they can shut it sooner they will. Will save extra losses plus more employee entitlements at the end if they do.
Poor old Falcon is having a tough time, specially where dealers are concerned. Bit hard to sell them when you have them parked in the holding paddock rusting away!

They will also have to take into account that they more than likely have supply contracts running until 2016. It might be a matter of keeping things running (even tho at a lower level), so they dont have to pay damages for breach of contract. A few years back, Holden had to pay one of its suppliers around $50 million, due to drop in demand from Holden.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by GQ_Smooth

If there is no demand for Falcon, workers will be stood down until the order bank fills up then bring them back to fill the demand. I don't see Ford paying production workers to do nothing, if demand isn't there it turns into down days (not sure if this will be with or without pay). If the workers aren't happy they do have the option to leave but potentially lose there entitlements if the voluntary redundancy isn't an option. They should be able to push through until 2016.

Nope. They will cut and run as soon as the numbers drop low enough, we have been told there are no guarantees that we will last till the end.

A lot of us suspect they will do nothing to help sell Falcons just to bring on the end quicker, to save money on redundancies and reduce the money they are losing keeping production going. I wonder if they will even bother advertising the 2014 Falcon beyond the bare minimum?

They are bound by the government funding to release the 2014 Falcon and Territory but beyond probably 2015 it will solely come down to numbers.

Things are looking bad already, 12 and maybe more down days till the end of the year. This government FBT rubbish is causing havoc, not just with us but all the manufacturers.

[I6DOHC]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Nope. They will cut and run as soon as the numbers drop low enough, we have been told there are no guarantees that we will last till the end.

A lot of us suspect they will do nothing to help sell Falcons just to bring on the end quicker, to save money on redundancies and reduce the money they are losing keeping production going. I wonder if they will even bother advertising the 2014 Falcon beyond the bare minimum?

They are bound by the government funding to release the 2014 Falcon and Territory but beyond probably 2015 it will solely come down to numbers.

Things are looking bad already, 12 and maybe more down days till the end of the year. This government FBT rubbish is causing havoc, not just with us but all the manufacturers.

I believe you, as you tend to get it right. Terribly bleak forecast.

For all the Ford workers at Geelong & Broadmeadows it has to be the biggest kicker that this is the reality of it all. I for one will support you guys to the end, having purchased an FGII (great car) & will certainly get a 2014 falcon/ute and there are others out there who will do the same why they can.

It's a tragedy that we are on the fast track to becoming a country of incompetents, led by incompetents, who won't have the skills in the future to do the basics of building/making/growing our own things to sustain us. It will make a great case-study for future generations as we ultimately cross over the bounds of being a developed country to a backwater tourist destination.

[turbodewd]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

. This government FBT rubbish is causing havoc, not just with us but all the manufacturers.

Alas the government 'FBT rubbish' was an overly generous tax break on car leases (100% private!) which became middle/upper class welfare. It was a scheme which was a bit of a rort and went on for too long. The timing however is terrible (for Commodore and Falcon/Terri).

[GT014]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Nope. They will cut and run as soon as the numbers drop low enough, we have been told there are no guarantees that we will last till the end.

A lot of us suspect they will do nothing to help sell Falcons just to bring on the end quicker, to save money on redundancies and reduce the money they are losing keeping production going. I wonder if they will even bother advertising the 2014 Falcon beyond the bare minimum?

They are bound by the government funding to release the 2014 Falcon and Territory but beyond probably 2015 it will solely come down to numbers.

Things are looking bad already, 12 and maybe more down days till the end of the year. This government FBT rubbish is causing havoc, not just with us but all the manufacturers.

Is there any chance of them releasing the 2014 update earlier (like this year) or it's impossible due to the testing/tooling?

[JPFS1]

no chance.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

Can you be anymore negative?

Not until every Australian auto worker is out of a job apparently. Those predicting doom for Holden based on their sales last month, would be doing cartwheels if Ford did the same.

I'm with you, I think Holden did quite well considering the market.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

The issue isnt that the VF only sold 2800 for the month (and afterall it was fourth in the table, and everyone under 4th, would love to be fourth), its that 2800 a month (in the first full month of sales) is looking like it doesnt translate into a great long term (and I mean 1 or 2 years from now), future for the car. They may send 500 to the US each month, they may send 150 to NZ each month and they may send a few hundred to the middle east each month), but considering they are all loss makers, the prospects look slim in that they are never going to achieve high volume production levels to be able achieve a profit on making the car.

Given the price of the soon to be launched Chev SS which was costed when our dollar was at its highest and the fact the AUD is now dropping, I think its a big assumption that Holden's exports are all loss makers.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

The issue isnt that the VF only sold 2800 for the month (and afterall it was fourth in the table, and everyone under 4th, would love to be fourth), its that 2800 a month (in the first full month of sales) is looking like it doesnt translate into a great long term (and I mean 1 or 2 years from now), future for the car. They may send 500 to the US each month, they may send 150 to NZ each month and they may send a few hundred to the middle east each month), but considering they are all loss makers, the prospects look slim in that they are never going to achieve high volume production levels to be able achieve a profit on making the car.

The where loss making when the dollar was 1.04, it is now 0.89. So unless you have Holden’s costings sheets in front of you, you shouldn't say things that are just plain guesses!!

[Gadgetman]

There will not be an FG3 or FH or whatever you want to call it. Not a fact, just my 2 cents worth.

[Focused]

Just on the topic of profitability of selling small cars in Australia (I'm thinking about Holden's profit margins with their Cruze), Opel have just announced they're withdrawing from Australia. They tried for 12 months but have given up blaming the hypercompetitiveness of the small car market.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

There will not be an FG3 or FH or whatever you want to call it. Not a fact, just my 2 cents worth.

There may still be, it may require a change in Government and dumping of the FBT changes.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

There will not be an FG3 or FH or whatever you want to call it. Not a fact, just my 2 cents worth.

On the other side, the work is done and to junk that investment without trying to recover some revenue would be crazy...

[burnz]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

There may still be, it may require a change in Government and dumping of the FBT changes.

FTB or not as jpd80 states why waste prep, it ill still go ahead.

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by I6DOHC

It's a tragedy that we are on the fast track to becoming a country of incompetents, led by incompetents, who won't have the skills in the future to do the basics of building/making/growing our own things to sustain us. It will make a great case-study for future generations as we ultimately cross over the bounds of being a developed country to a backwater tourist destination.

Mate, a truer word has not been spoken.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

There will not be an FG3 or FH or whatever you want to call it. Not a fact, just my 2 cents worth.

Which Ford dealership do you run?? Strapp Ford wasn't it?

No wonder Ford can't sell them, with dealers as optimistic as you. No doubt you have all your FG2's sitting up in the back corner of the yard rusting away.

Maybe Ford should have went around and sorted the dealers out years ago...

[prydey]

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

Given the price of the soon to be launched Chev SS which was costed when our dollar was at its highest and the fact the AUD is now dropping, I think its a big assumption that Holden's exports are all loss makers.

Originally Posted by Joe5619

The where loss making when the dollar was 1.04, it is now 0.89. So unless you have Holden’s costings sheets in front of you, you shouldn't say things that are just plain guesses!!

so does that mean they are making $10k+ profit on every one they sell locally??

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

Alas the government 'FBT rubbish' was an overly generous tax break on car leases (100% private!) which became middle/upper class welfare. It was a scheme which was a bit of a rort and went on for too long. The timing however is terrible (for Commodore and Falcon/Terri).

Yup, should be killed off. How dare someone work hard and be rewarded.