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Originally Posted by westy73
No we are not in a recession. LAst time I looked interest rates are low, unemployment low and inflation within targets. Recessions effect local economies. Depressions effect Global economies. We are not in a recession however we are terribly vulnerable if it hits as we have deficits as far as the eye can see at least 3 years into the future which will turn even more negative should commodity prices drop and heaven forbid the mining bubble bursts. As you say it is vulnerable in other European economies so instability could mean great negativity in share markets
On the contrary debt is exactly the problem especially when it isn't being contained. That's the real issue. If I have a loan for a house then yes at that point in time I can service the debt. What if interest rates double ?? then what ? keep spending or are you in trouble ? Have you had to pay mortgage rates above 10% in your lifetime or 15% ?? I know for a fact that answer would be NO.
Yes and about forecasts....the FORECAST was for a surplus of 1 Billion bucks this year....tell me what the ACTUAL result was....well ??? 18 Billion in Deficit.
So forecasts are not a guide at all and if so are very flimsy and are subject to financial events outside of our governments control.
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Local standing amongst global players mean nothing - if we do well, but the rest of the globe is ailing, no money will flow through - and a country can't sustain itself on its own without import and exports.
On debt - we are containing it. It doesn't need to be erased, we are still reducing it amid huge global debt rates that are actually increasing - if anything we should use this standing to pump more money into our economy.