Predictions about the future value of the hero models...

[Trump]

Reading this morning, I came upon this line:

Originally Posted by joe5619

How much are those puppies going to be worth in 20-30-40 years time!!

It got me thinking. Is the idea that a GT (or any other limited build car) will become valuable sometime in the future based on precedent and that this precedent will continue? With Australia racing head first towards becoming the worlds biggest warehouse and coffee shop (with the inevitable mass unemployment it will create), is the precedent able to continue? Discuss.

[Elks]

Less than if you put the same amount into blue chip shares.

The other factor is unlike the 60's and 70's where these LE cars were built and raced and driven and sadly often damaged.

Many of today's LE cars are shredded from day one. And almost all are garaged and pampered and very many are kept low/lowish km.

So whilst in the early 70's there were GT's and short runs and late 70's 300 Cobras. And yes they are now worth money because of there age, rarity and racing heritage. Also this is against a backdrop of massive volumes of falcons.

In the FPV times there has been 5th and 40th anniversary models, Cobras, GT Black and RSpec I think that's all for a total of about 1500 vehicles. Plus another 500 to come. ** Most if not all of those vehicles will again be pampered. That's more than double the amount of T cars Tickford built in LE's alone.

By all means buy one of these magnificent cars if you can. Shed it pamper it, show it but most of all drive it as that is where your real return on investment will come. No point in looking at an asset in 40 years time. Who knows what could happen between now and then.

** note: I'm not exactly sure of the numbers so feel free to correct the record.

[Rodge]

What Elks said. Buy a well diversified bunch of high growth shares if you want a real investment. The real dividend in owning a fine vehicle is the pleasure of driving it. FWIW I see a HSV GTS having a higher value in the long run, (most complete Australian performacne car ever IMO). Next in my opinion will be the iconic F6 because its engine is finishing up forever. (Coyote engines, both NA and SC will live on in the Mustang).

[2011G6E]

Hmm...looking at the flimsy plastics and unpainted bare metal parts in a lot of new cars...even "hero models"...I seriously doubt that unless they are kept out of the sun, undriven, in a hermetically sealed garage that in "20, 30, or 40 years time" they'll even still be around...

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

Hmm...looking at the flimsy plastics and unpainted bare metal parts in a lot of new cars...even "hero models"...I seriously doubt that unless they are kept out of the sun, undriven, in a hermetically sealed garage that in "20, 30, or 40 years time" they'll even still be around...

come on fos, you don't even / have never owned one of these cars

[2011G6E]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

come on fos, you don't even / have never owned one of these cars

Apart from the late 2010 50th Anniversary G6E...which amazed us with the "quality" of some of the plastics, the non-soft-close center console lid and hand hold returns, and so-on. Not to mention the way bare iron such as the gnine block and other bits and pieces wasn't painted anymore. It was "cheap" in a lot of areas, and certainly not overly durable in appearance in some spots.

"Hero" cars I had seen at the dealership and in the hands of workmates are pretty much all the same build quality. People only keep their cars on average a couple of years now...you're not expected to keep it for twenty or thirty years...you should trade it in every few years like a good consumer. Why put time and effort into rock solid very long lasting plastics technology when a car isn't expected to have a life that long?

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

Apart from the late 2010 50th Anniversary G6E...which amazed us with the "quality" of some of the plastics, the non-soft-close center console lid and hand hold returns, and so-on. Not to mention the way bare iron such as the gnine block and other bits and pieces wasn't painted anymore. It was "cheap" in a lot of areas, and certainly not overly durable in appearance in some spots.

"Hero" cars I had seen at the dealership and in the hands of workmates are pretty much all the same build quality. People only keep their cars on average a couple of years now...you're not expected to keep it for twenty or thirty years...you should trade it in every few years like a good consumer. Why put time and effort into rock solid very long lasting plastics technology when a car isn't expected to have a life that long?

So you personally have never owned anything 'plasticy' long term

and the rest is just the usual internertz bs hearsay

cool

[Auslandau]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

Hmm...looking at the flimsy plastics and unpainted bare metal parts in a lot of new cars...even "hero models"...I seriously doubt that unless they are kept out of the sun, undriven, in a hermetically sealed garage that in "20, 30, or 40 years time" they'll even still be around...

........ unlike the Falcon Hardtops that had perfect plenums and rear windows that couldn't trap water. Where vinyl roofs were 100% water proof and boots were perfectly sealed not allowing any water to penetrate. Window rubbers met perfectly with the windows and the electric windows were bullet proof. Parts are widely available where a single centre rear plastic lense for a Landau can fetch upwards of $800. Yep!

Meanwhile ...... reproduction parts have been available for EF's for years! If there is a market, they will be produced.

I wouldn't buy thinking of their value in years to come. Only to enjoy now.

[Whitey-AMG]

In 40 years time I'll be waaaaaay old. Too old to drive and too old to give a %÷×t
I reckon my BFGT will be worth 1000,000 no probs. Its all plastic right so it'll still be around... no rust.

Of course houses will be worth 100,000, 000 , a carton of milk will be 1000 and a litre of fuel if we still have any will be 5000 bucks. Lol

[Trump]

My line of thought wasn't so much about the cars themselves, it was more about the underlying economic situation unfolding. Should the economy go breasts up (taking a multitude of jobs with it), the cars may well be rare, desireable and in good working order, but will people be able to buy them...?

[40RDT]

Originally Posted by Rodge

FWIW I see a HSV GTS having a higher value in the long run, (most complete Australian performacne car ever IMO). Next in my opinion will be the iconic F6 because its engine is finishing up forever. (Coyote engines, both NA and SC will live on in the Mustang).

Spot on imo

[Franco Cozzo]

Probably nothing because those aren't the hero cars of Gen Y, Jap Imports are.

IM generalising and as a whole, majority of Gen Y are either Jap Import or Holden fanboys.

[2011G6E]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Probably nothing because those aren't the hero cars of Gen Y, Jap Imports are.

IM generalising and as a whole, majority of Gen Y are either Jap Import or Holden fanboys.

Which leads in a circle back to why Ford failed so badly...they forgot the big prime directive of making any product: "Give the public what they want...don't try to tell them what they want because that can very easily backfire badly".

[rancidpunx]

Another problem we will face is spares. Not panels and actual hardware but more so the vast electrical systems. Something goes wrong in an X Series, you pop the bonnet and get a spanner out. With late models you have to go through system faults and diagnostics. It will all still be available in the future but it will be a massive stuff around I think. Alot of the plastics in the cars are also flimsy and will struggle to hold up.
Then theres the question of fuel. Will guys have to re-mortgage their house in 30yrs just to go out for a cruise in V8.
I think there will be a market for these types of vehicles but it wont be very big. We all like cars such as the 6.2lt AMGs etc so why would a Falcon be worth more in the future than something like that. They will all bomb in value and then maybe pick up from there. The only thing is that its built here, but that doesn't mean anything to most of the current occupants of Australia so why should they change their minds in the future.

You got to think that the sticker packs will retain slightly more value than a normal GT, the RSpec was the fastest Aussie car ever when released which will hold in its favour, same for the GTS. The last GT will have the finality of it on its side but wont have any claim to fame in terms of performance unless Ford have kept something under wraps. But that can be taken away easily if Ford do another Last GT in a few years time just to tickle slow sales. I think F6s will bomb hard initially and become a cheap cult car like current VL's and nissans and as such become quite rare as they all get modified and mutilated.

[whynot]

(I posted this comment almost a year ago. In my view, it still stands.)

May I suggest that anyone thinking of using a Falcon as an investment needs to seriously think again?

First, classic car investments are very long term, in the order of 30 years before they have a chance of becoming positive. And, even then, only if the market will support it. A simple NPV analysis assuming 3% inflation over 30 years indicates that an $80K vehicle will have to appreciate to at least $194K to stay with inflation. Whereas simply parking $80K into a bank account (the safest and lowest returning of all savings mechanism) will earn you $291K. Or putting that amount into the home loan will save over $441K in interest payments.

Second, the market for home grown classic vehicles is presently overheated by cashed up bogans and tradies spending the wealth from the mining boom. The mining boom will not last and over the next decade or so, the relative wages for tradies against professionals will return back to where they were in the 1990’s. A middle age tradie might lust after a GTHO. A middle aged accountant will more likely lust after an Audi. You need to factor this into prospective 2040 sale prices.

If you have the cash to spend or you wish to have a personal indulgence, go right ahead and get a V8 Falcon. But as an investment? May I steer you towards an investment advisor to talk the matter over first.

[Rodge]

Originally Posted by whynot

(I posted this comment almost a year ago. In my view, it still stands.)

May I suggest that anyone thinking of using a Falcon as an investment needs to seriously think again?

First, classic car investments are very long term, in the order of 30 years before they have a chance of becoming positive. And, even then, only if the market will support it. A simple NPV analysis assuming 3% inflation over 30 years indicates that an $80K vehicle will have to appreciate to at least $194K to stay with inflation. Whereas simply parking $80K into a bank account (the safest and lowest returning of all savings mechanism) will earn you $291K. Or putting that amount into the home loan will save over $441K in interest payments.

Second, the market for home grown classic vehicles is presently overheated by cashed up bogans and tradies spending the wealth from the mining boom. The mining boom will not last and over the next decade or so, the relative wages for tradies against professionals will return back to where they were in the 1990’s. A middle age tradie might lust after a GTHO. A middle aged accountant will more likely lust after an Audi. You need to factor this into prospective 2040 sale prices.

If you have the cash to spend or you wish to have a personal indulgence, go right ahead and get a V8 Falcon. But as an investment? May I steer you towards an investment advisor to talk the matter over first.

You are absolutly right but I couldn't resist as an accountant posting this for the benifet of cashed up tradies. I have a future value of money retirement planner in my new computer system.
Find a good high growth investment fund that's well managed by one of the leading fund managers and if we assume an average annual growth rate of 10% per annum and initial investment of $90,000 and monthly contributions of $100, (it'll probably cost you about that per month to insure and maintain a super low mileage shedded car), the future value of the investment in 40 years = $5.47 million. So if you're 30 and cashed up I'd say if you want to have a secure and comfortable retirement lifestyle you now know what to do.

Even adjusted to net present value terms and assumming the fund manager only beats inflation by 5% per annum the net present value in today's dollars is $814,860. As others have suggested, cars are for driving.

[XP6]

Bit tongue in cheek but...

in 40 years I dont think even one of these new GT's will even run on its original electrical system because as you know electronics do degrade eventually even if not used(despite what GY's and all their wizzbang gadets think)... so they wont be original anymore :P

[Struggo]

As they say, "Time Will Tell"

[302 XC]

The big issue is every man and his dog ,are parking up things for a future gain ,and we all know limited builds or not ,supply and demand can dictate values .
People have seriously lost the plot of what owning a car is about ,its about driving the bloody thing,not a shed filler .Everyone is trying to jump on the next big ticket ,in 20,30,40 years time there will be a big influx ,of pristine,low K,late model muscle hitting the market all at once, itll shatter prices
Back in the 70s,80s many who owned the muscle back then ,be GT,monaro whatever drove them ,they were transport ,and many moved em on for whatever the reason,very very few could afford to buy and park up,they had other financial commitements,like rasising a family,a mortgage.
Turn the clock back mid 70s and tell GTHO P3 owners that one day ,in about 40 years their car will be worth 500 K or more they would have punched you in the head to wake up to yourself .
Every car drops the ball in value regardless of what it is within 3,5 maybe 10 years ,so when it does do you hold on longer or sell out while you can get something
Pay 50,60,70 ,80K for new muscle ,add in interest,insurance,lets see how much it does cost you over 5 years on top of the initial outlay ,youll pack your bags and run away

[pottery beige]

i've only ever owned them for fun and entertainment value

[XBROO]

FFS who cares just drive the ******* things. When I bought my coupe, did I buy it because it was a GT? No I bought it because I liked the shape and the running gear, I would of easily bought a GS or 500 if it had that running gear. People get too caught up in how much is it worth, like others have said invest in something else if this is the case. If you buy a car buy it because you love to drive it and love looking at it, trust me you'll be a lot more happier.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by XBROO

FFS who cares just drive the ******* things. When I bought my coupe, did I buy it because it was a GT? No I bought it because I liked the shape and the running gear, I would of easily bought a GS or 500 if it had that running gear. People get too caught up in how much is it worth, like others have said invest in something else if this is the case. If you buy a car buy it because you love to drive it and love looking at it, trust me you'll be a lot more happier.

I agree 100%. I buy the cars I buy because I like them for their characteristics, not for perceived future value. My thinking was about the fact that some people do see (some) cars as a future investment and that the economic conditions and how they are deteriorating will decide whether this behaviour continues.

[flooded one]

Cars are meant to be driven and enjoyed